America's new swing region: changing politics and by Ruy Teixeira

By Ruy Teixeira

The Mountain West —Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah —has turn into the recent swing area in American politics. All symptoms aspect to those states, specially Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, being the most important within the 2012 election. regrettably, the increase of this sector has been underreported within the media, and lots of political observers have in simple terms the main superficial figuring out of the profound financial, political, and social alterations that proceed to reshape the Mountain West. America's New Swing quarter is the remedy.Led via bestselling writer and political analyst Ruy Teixeira, a skilled team of students assembled via the Brookings Mountain West application (housed on the collage of Nevada–Las Vegas) offers the proof and the narrative invaluable for knowing what's taking place during this quarter and why it's so important.Contents 1. advent and Overview2. America's New Swing sector: The Political Demography and Geography of the Mountain West3. Metropolitan balloting styles within the Mountain West: the recent and previous Political Heartlands4. Hispanics, Race, and the altering Political panorama of the us Mountain West5. The Political Attitudes of the Millennial iteration within the Mountain West6. The Mountain West this day: A neighborhood Survey7. Reapportionment and Redistricting within the Mountain WestContributors contain Karlyn Bowman (American company Institute), David Damore(University of Nevada–Las Vegas (UNLV), William Frey (Brookings Institution), Scott Keeter (Pew examine Center), Robert E. Lang (Brookings, UNLV, and the Lincy Institute), Tom Sanchez (Virginia Tech University), and Ruy Teixeira (Century starting place and the heart for American Progress).

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F rey and R uy T eixeira White college graduates, the other part of his growth coalition, will be critical in 2012. When Kerry lost the state in 2004, he ran a 2-point deficit among this group, so Obama’s 14-point advantage in 2008 was a huge shift. The GOP candidate will seek to shift this group back toward its earlier GOP sympathies or at least to whittle down significantly Obama’s 2008 advantage among the group. Then there is the group most sympathetic to the GOP: the white working class. McCain carried these voters by 15 points in 2008, and given the current economic situation, there is certainly room for a sharper swing toward the Republicans in 2012.

Maps C-3 and C-4 reveal this information for 2008 and 1988. Each county is colorcoded by its margin for the victorious presidential candidate (dark blue for a Democratic victory of 10 points or more; light blue for a Democratic victory of under 10 points; bright red for a Republican victory of 10 points or more; light red for a Republican victory of under 10 points). In addition, our eight Colorado regions are shown on each map by heavy black lines. It is striking how much of the 2008 map is colored not only red but bright red, indicating that McCain carried the county by 10 points or more.

Colorado County Presidential Voting, 1988 NORTH AND WEST BOULDER DENVER DENVER OUTER SUBURBS DENVER INNER SUBURBS DENVER OUTER SUBURBS EAST COLORADO SPRINGS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST Republican Margin 10%+ Republican Margin up to 10% Democrat Margin up to 10% Source: Authors' calculations of election data Democrat Margin 10%+ Source: Authors’ calculations based on election data. CountyPresidential Presidential Voting Change, 1988-2008 Colorado County Voting Change, 1988–2008 Map C-5. Colorado NORTH AND WEST BOULDER DENVER DENVER OUTER SUBURBS DENVER INNER SUBURBS DENVER OUTER SUBURBS EAST COLORADO SPRINGS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST Republican Margin Increase 10%+ Republican Margin Increase up to 10% Democrat Margin Increase up to 10% Democrat Margin Increase 10%+ Source: Authors' calculations of election data Source: Authors’ calculations based on election data.

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